9
Jun

When the price of gas hit about $4 per gallon in the US last year, the sales of the SUV, which had been the favourite vehicle of the US citizens for a while, substantially dropped, while fuel efficient cars and hybrids managed to get their foot through the door. (Though once the prices dropped, Americans were back to their usual ways).However inspite of being costlier than the usual gas powered cars, the hybrids slowly have made space for themselves in the market.
Japan has been the leader in Hybrid vehicles with its two automobile giants, Toyota and Honda, having launched their Prius and Insight brands respectively. The Prius has already captured the hybrid car market in the US with increasing sales each year. By far this year, Toyota has sold approximately 150,000 units. Honda’s Insight which made its debut in US recently, is also expected to have strong sales.
The American car giants are not doing that great in the hybrid market. General Motors which recently went bankrupt and will survive only with the aid of the US government, had initially a nice technological advantage in this market with its Chevy Volt. But they blew it by concentrating instead on the gas guzzling and fuel inefficient SUVs.
As concerns the EVs (just to clarify, EV vehicles run only on batteries, hybrids can work both on electricity and gas) Mitsubishi motors has launched its new all electric vehicle i-MiEV in Japan. According to the company, “Keys to the i-MiEV’s performance include an ultra-quiet permanent magnet synchronous motor and a powerfully efficient lithium-ion battery pack that can be quick-charged up to 80 percent of capacity in as little as 30 minutes.”  The cost of the the i-MiEV, which has a range of 99 miles (160 km) on a single charge, is a considerably steep $47,500.

Nissan also aims to bring its EV-02 Cube Electric Car in the market by 2010. Another Japanese company, Subaru, will bring out its own electric car, the Stella, for $49,255.

The EVs are thus considerably costlier than their hybrid counterparts. (The cost of Prius for example ranges from $22k to $30k) The main reason for this is the expensive lithium-ion batteries.  In addition, due to the low mileage obtained with one battery charge, the EVs are also not suitable for long distance driving, but are mostly useful in cities. It will be atleast a few years before the EVs can catch up with hybrids. However the EV manufacturers are trying to impress upon the people the advantages of a car which saves them on gas. Though initially a high investment, in the long run these cars will save the owner considerable money on gas prices. Also electric cars have lower maintenance costs because of lesser mechanical parts.

Some companies have also come with ideas like allowing buyers to lease expensive battery packs to spread the cost over the lifetime of the car.  In addition Japanese and now even Chinese governments are offering subsidies to EV and hybrid car buyers. China specially is making concerted efforts in this direction.

According to a NYTimes report, “…beyond manufacturing, subsidies of up to $8,800 are being offered to taxi fleets and local government agencies in 13 Chinese cities for each hybrid or all-electric vehicle they purchase. The state electricity grid has been ordered to set up electric car charging stations in Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin. China is tackling the challenges (of the hybrid and EV market) with the same tools that helped it speed industrialization and put on the Olympics: immense amounts of energy, money and people.”     China is thus taking strong steps in ramping up the hybrid and EV development and production.

As concerns India, the Indian government has initiated a project in co-operation with private companies to develop hybrid vehicles in the country.  Maruti Suzuki is planning to demonstrate its hybrids by the 2010 commonwealth games. Ratan Tata also recently made a statement that Tata Motors will bring out its electric car possibly as early as September this year. Indian car companies are therefore, thankfully, not way behind in the hybrid and the EV market. The Indian government has taken the right steps in this area and if it follows it up with more encouragement and subsides like those offered by the Japanese and Chinese governemnts, the Indian car manufacturers too might be able to make strong progress in this market, not only in India but also abroad.

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Category : Business / Finance / Marketing / Planning

7 Responses to “Of Hybrids and EVs”


Bruce McIntire June 9, 2009

I must say this is a great article i enjoyed reading it keep the good work :)

Anup P. Joshi June 9, 2009

Thank you!

vickram June 9, 2009

Nice summary, Anup.

A couple of points: 1. the exchange battery pack is not a leasing solution, it is a remodeling of the logistics solution. A full battery is not quite the same thing as a full gas tank, although is may seem so superficially. The total cost of unit electricity delivered in a battery is of course a fraction of the total cost of gasoline, but the concept of a replaceable battery pack changes the logistics of fuel distribution completely. Watch (Better Place) Shai Agassi’s TED talk here [www.ted.com/talks/shai_agassi_on_electric_cars.html].

This is why Tata Motors is also playing* with the idea of a compressed air vehicle, using Guy Negre’s AirCar design (a jv with TM). TM is very silent about progress on this design, but Negre has already announced that at least one European airport has decided to go ahead with AirCar variants (passenger buses, aircraft tractors, passenger ramps etc) for the entire vehicular requirement, to be fulfilled during the next calendar year.

[*I only say 'playing', because TM is so silent about this jv. But that is not untypical of the Tatas, they don't often adopt the publicity hound approach, despite the Nano PR disaster.]

AirCar variants here need to be designed keeping in mind Indian conditions – as many people, including Agassi, have pointed out, Indians don’t often fill full tanks, so the cost of refueling has to be really low, in order to influence the switch. This could mean very fast compressed air systems (as Negre proposes), or modular battery packs in EVs as well (unlike the single battery pack of the Better Place design).

Readers also ought to know that EVs have been sold in India for a number of years, the Reva from Bengaluru. Their main drawback is high cost, which reflects the rather irresponsible licensing and tax structure as it currently exists, in spite of the crippling price the country pays to import crude oil and gas. Mahindra’s (M&M) have also been making EV aircraft tugs for decades, but have completely failed to convert this valuable asset of knowhow into a usable road vehicle.

IITB’s IDC has consistently been promoting various EV designs, but none have been taken up for commercial production yet. Some are featured in the newspapers from time to time, once again today, in the Mumbai Mirror (June 9, 2009, pg 6).

2. However, the second thing you could look at is the overall end-to-end system design. All these solutions mentioned above focus on the car itself, and its fuel. Nobody has been looking at roads, which represent an enormous country investment in infrastructure, one that is neither recovered from vehicle manufacturers, nor from the vehicle-using public. The total cost of roads is much more than the cost of tarmac*, of course, since they are disruptive of land use etc.

*or whatever

Truly excellent vehicles will manage without excellent roads, perhaps with unpaved or no roads. But such designs are not typically seen as yet, and have not attracted any significant support in either VC or academic research.

Anup June 9, 2009

Thats some excellent stuff Vickram. Thanks for the feedback.

Gaurav choudhari June 10, 2009

Good article by anup and grt valueadded comments by vickram, thanks to both of you.

Manoj M June 11, 2009

Any idea when hybrid bikes will be launched in India?

Anup P. Joshi June 11, 2009

Honda and Yamaha plan to get Hybrid motorbikes by sometime next year. It should be some more time before these companies launch their bikes in India.
On the other hand, in India, last I heard, TVS was making efforts on their hybrid bikes. Not sure when they will get it out.