May
Why did the BJP do so badly?
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There has been a lot written and talked about why the BJP did so badly in Elections 2009. Arun Jaitley wrote a fairly honest and analytical column in the Indian Express last week saying this was a message that voters wanted stability, moderation and it was a vote against shrillness in public discourse. Some of the most commonly cited reasons include lack of a credible alternative to Dr. Manmohan Singh, projection of Narendra Modi as future PM midway through the campaign (who inspite of a track record of development remains a divisive figure), disconnect with the youth and disillusionment of its core voters with the BJP’s overtures towards giving up its core demands – Uniform Civil Code, Article 370 and Ram Mandir. Inability to form new alliances or retain key allies like BJD is also cited as a reason. I don’t want to go over already covered material here (Thanks to Kaushik Saha, who in a comment to my earlier post on the BJP covered a lot of issues). I think there were factors beyond this which have not been discussed adequately. Key among these include:
- “Inability to articulately present the UPA government’s shortcomings” : The performance of the UPA government on the economic and national security front was not much to write home about. But the BJP never succeeded in either exposing the weaknesses of the UPA government or presenting a credible alternative. How does one analyze a government’s economic management? This has always been a controversial subject in economics; but if one considers the three key economic functions of a government, one can get some answers. Firstly, the allocation function, governments are expected to allocate resources by providing goods and services or by running schemes like the mid-day meal scheme and the NREGA. On this front, the UPA did reasonably well (execution issues apart). Second, the redistribution function, governments are the only economic agency capable of redistributing wealth, they do this through taxation, giving credit selectively or by measures such as the farm loan waiver. On this front, the UPA government was slightly shaky, the taxation regime (thanks to VAT, FBT and the rest) has become rather complex, some would say, even draconian. The farm loan waiver itself has the potential to cause serious long term damage to the banking sector. Third, the stabilization and sustainability function; this can be measured through inflation control, fiscal responsibility and investment growth. Here the UPA government failed miserably, with fiscal deficit (including off-balance sheet items) touching 10.5% – 11.0% of GDP. But the BJP never pointed this out. It did not have a credible reply to the UPA’s tom-toming of average GDP growth rates during the NDA rule and the UPA rule. The BJP never mentioned that 2004 – 07 was the greatest bull run in the history of mankind and the UPA’s only contribution was that it did nothing to interrupt a booming economy. When the economy got into trouble in 2008, the UPA again did nothing. It didn’t help that the BJP had no alternative roadmap to offer. Similarly, national security; the BJP’s only solution to a worsening security situation seems to be the hanging of Afzal Guru.
- “Inability to raise the issue of systematic undermining of Institutions by the UPA government”: The UPA government went out of its way to destroy institutions , be it institutes of higher education (by reservations), the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) (through blatant politicization, the Quattrochi episode and the rest), the Election Commission (The UPA appointed as EC, Navin Chawla who in the words of a high court judge “should not be appointed to any position requiring some application of a fair and unbiased mind”) (Justice Shah in the inquiry commission report looking into the atrocities committed during the emergency). The BJP did nothing to raise these issues. There were no protests, no questions in parliament, not even after CEC Gopalaswamy had recommended removal of Navin Chawla.
- “Absence of a roadmap for the future”: I think issues like leadership and allies are secondary. The BJP today seems like a party without any vision for the future, it does not have credible alternatives or measures to handle security, economy or anything else. It does not know what to do with its core issues. In trying to hunt with the hound and run with the hare, it is doing neither.
The BJP seems to be floundering, it seems to be a party bereft of ideas. Which is a shame; because India needs a genuine right of center party. It is as much in India’s best interests as it is in the BJP’s best interests; that the BJP find a way of rejuvenating itself. This should be my last post on the elections. I won’t stop writing about politics though; I think my next post will be about why the concept of reforms in India seems so misguided. Thanks for all the comments and keep reading.
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14 Responses to “Why did the BJP do so badly?”
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may be the author of this post should have sent a mail to BJP HQ about how BJP should “articulately present the UPA government’s shortcomings”, before the election
I am sure these shortcomings were known well before the election and there must be at least a few people in the BJP who would have taken the mail seriously. But alas, the mail didn’t make it and we are still stuck with UPA.
Well well written. There are many serious shortcomings which BJP needs to take into account. One more issue I feel is that though BJP launched an extensive online campaign but there is still no way a common person can reach out to them. There is no email address / telephone call for any political party where one can call and seek help, give views or talk about issues concerning them.
Hi Manoj, good to see you on this web site as well !cheers, Umesh: when we travel again in Metro we can discuss the pro and cons of UPA v/s NDA !!@Manoj Mathai
Good article !Infact this morning I also enjoyed reading an article on same story by Khushwant Singh in HT (http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?id=a231b7aa-f03c-49fd-85bc-8c59a4aac4e0).
I have been a big fan of LKA and have also read his popular book :My Country My Life(http://www.amazon.com/My-Country-Life-L-K-Advani/dp/8129113635/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1243692578&sr=8-1)
and there is a dichotomy as to what Shri LKA writes and what actually went wrong with BJP during 2009 elections, just before BJP started maligning Dr MMS, things were getting on the right side for BJP.Once Cong started retaliating with Rahul Gandhi himself took upo the mantle of defending Dr MMS,the eventual down fall for BJP got initaited.I always believe that leadership is focusing and delivering on one’s strengths rather than doing “negative” politics.
Better leadership days to BJP in 2014 !!
Nice post…..even I hope that BJP people soon discourse from their leisurely promenade and actually get into discussing and thinking loud some serious stuff….
The most draw back of the BJP / NDA success in 2009 elections were over confidence of the BJP leaders on NRAENDRA MODIJI. The Hard Hindutya icon Modi failed in Muslim dominated States like UP.The BJP has to remove its Hindutrya policies. In globolisation the Saffron Parivar Hindutya will not work any more except in Gujarat. Gujaratis are afraid of Muslims and Modiji provided them protection.
Secondly the BJP development programmes have not atracted the masses. Urban Hindus are going from the fold of BJP. The BJP have to develop their Secular image in the World / India.
Close to 1 out of 5 voters is a muslim or non hindu… But if you take the actual voting population that can come as close to 1 out of 4. The problem is that just like IIM is full of dumb guys who think they have already made it… So is the case with major political parties and they dont get such simple equations…
To the above equation add the fact that the majority voter is mostly from the rural areas… The fact that his loans were waived off and the NREGS has made a big impression everywhere along with good rain for the last 5 years… Only really dumb and stupid IIM guys would have believed that BJP ever had a chance. Any other analysis anywhere else is either less than 25% of the real story or more or less useless post event bullshit analysis done by losers with big degrees.
The bloody moral of the story is if you are not willing to openly (…….The rest of the comment has been removed)
@Current,
a simple question – what was your CAT %ile?
btw, if you want to post such comments, current – start your own blog, and post as many abusive comments as you can – abuse IIM / IIT / AIIMS guys as much as you can – who is stopping you?
@ Current
Firstly you have not even given your real name and have written such baseless accusations that I will not even comment about it. Please discuss if you feel like giving your real name or atleast some real arguments.
Very well written post!
In my opinion BJP missed the youth connection. Controversial as it remains, but Rahul Gandhi and his young brigade have done it well. Also, Congress has won at a lot of places because of division of votes amongst its rivals.
None the less, BJP were not the favorites before the elections. I really would like to understand the effect PRE-POLL analysis given by Media Experts(pun intended) on how and what a voter thinks about the candidate/party and finally who they vote! I somehow feel media befriended BJP during the poll wave. They got the glamour in between though (thanks to projecting Narendra Modi being projected as the PM).
@Kaushik
Leave him be. Lots of guys don’t like grapes, especially sour ones.
http://in.news.yahoo.com/43/20090820/818/tnl-varun-speeches-modi-s-budhiya-remark.html
http://news.rediff.com/report/2009/aug/20/arun-jaitely-defends-jaswant-expulsion.htm
Why BJP lost – a Chintan Baithak report.
Gaurav – you say the media befriended BJP – I find it quite to the contrary. The media, for a number of reasons, went after BJP;s blood. They brought forth the Kandahar issue to give Congress a lease of life after they were cornered on the 26/11 issue.
You said the media projected a BJP victor. When? How? All the exit polls, analyses showed heavy Congress victories. In fact, media to a large extent acted as the catalyst in consolidating the Congress vote among youths by bringing forth non-issues like the Mangalore-Muthalik incident and making them a matter of life and death.
Narendra Modi and glamour are as far aprt as chalk and cheese are – here is a man who has worked his way up the political radar, unlike the very bunch of “youngsters” you have mentioned who did nothing but inherit their father’s legacies and have sat comfortably on them.