May 28th, 2008: I am watching the IPL on SET Max. It’s the last ball of the game. Laxmipathi Balaji of the Chennai Super Kings runs in to bowl to Sohail Tanvir of the Rajasthan Royals. Tanvir pulls it to midwicket for a boundary and the Royals run onto the field for having won the inaugural edition of the Indian Premier League. They went from rank underdogs to champions in little over a month. Shane Warne is hailed as a dream captain and the world falls for the IPL.
April 2009: The IPL is back. But only on television.  Its in South Africa. More players and more money. Some team changes and some glamour (Shilpa Shetty- yikes!) Not as many spectators, but many more than what I expected for sure given its South Africa where cricket is only the 5th most popular sport.

There have been plenty of rumours about the IPL of having been fixed. Even as I steadfastedly opposed the theory as Mumbai were going through that amazing run of victories last year, I had to believe in them as they lost agonizingly close matches before and after that run. While fixing such a large event might be a Herculean effort in itself, let me outline a few reasons why it could and rather should have been done.

Objective 1: “Its about getting bums on seats”

I took part in a little case contest which we ran where we had the Chief Judge give insights on the IPL, but this one sentence summarizes what he said. By seats he doesn’t mean those in the stadium alone. Those filled seats also contribute towards an important seating facility – the home. We would rather watch a match that is being followed by the entire world and is probably a one sided affair, rather than one that is being played to empty stands and is won with a six of the last ball. Its another matter that no television channel will broadcast that match.

Objective 2: “League popularity is a function of the unpredictability of individual games”
We had a case in IIMC discussing sports leagues. The key take-away from that case was this one sentence. Speaking about bums on seats, no one would prefer tickets to a match one already knows is going to be one-sided. At least not in South Africa. No one in the stadium means lesser interest in the games and much lesser coffee table conversations. A downward spiral leading to the failure of the league.

The IPL is a BCCI backed sports league that is run by private entrepreneurs. The whole managing lot are super smart dudes who don’t require B-school grads to tell them this. Figuring this out would have been easy. While cartelization would have been easy enough and profit sharing similarly so, the actual implementation would have been difficult.

Objective 3: “New market creation requires a quality product”

The product in this case represents T20 cricket. Something as new would require you to be hit in the face with a whole new paradigm of entertainment. And while the skimpily clad dancers make for good viewing, the matches have to be interesting. Brings us back to the previous point.

Objective 4: “Its about the ROI buddy”

While Shahrukh Khan might want to exit the business after making a good profit in a year, most of the other guys seem to want to stay put. I don’t think Mr. Mallaya is the kind of guy who would be seeking petty gains and selling out so soon. And when you are staying invested, you are going to do anything to make your team popular. That includes thrashing the previous years champions, losing four matches abjectly, and then coming back to beat three really strong teams.

Most of the team owners didn’t know what would happen and definitely not the unexpected popularity that the IPL managed in its first year. We always look to hedge our risks in such cases. Match fixing and resultant profit sharing would be a natural hedge.

Any issues the stars of the game might have in fixing games would evaporate with the exorbitant salaries that they are being paid and 14 games would not diminish it. Not games that are super exciting anyway. The smaller players are happy with the money and even more about the exposure. So it’s a win-win for them. Its little wonder that the English journalists wrote this tale of woe for English players drafted into the IPL this year.
While these may be reasons that are co-incidental, or compelling depending on the view you take, it doesn’t take away from the fact that the IPL is good entertainment. And hence even as a naysayer, I am looking forward to tomorrows match of the Mumbai Indians. Whether their “duniya hila denge” promise is yet to be seen, the IPL definitely has done it.
Cheers!

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